28 January 2025
06/10/2024: MSCI (-0.76%): The MSCI had a volatile week following Iran’s missile strikes on Israel, leading to increased investments in safe-haven like the US dollar and gold, and a surge in oil prices amid supply concerns. US President Biden's support for Israel's potential strikes on Iran’s oil facilities further soured sentiment. In the Eurozone, inflation slowed to 1.8%, fuelling speculation about a potential ECB rate cut. OpenAI raised $6.6 billion, valuing the company at $157 billion. The Nikkei gained after Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba indicated no readiness for further rate hikes. UK Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested accelerated rate cuts due to favourable inflation trends. A strong US September jobs report reduced expectations for a significant Fed rate cut.
13/10/2024: MSCI (+0.91%): The MSCI rebounded with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising above 4% and the US dollar reaching a mid-August high. Corporate news included Rio Tinto's $3.3 billion acquisition offer for Arcadium Lithium, which surged 35.39%, and Pernod Ricard's 4.2% drop due to China’s anti-dumping measures on EU brandy. Homebuilder Vistry fell 24.31% after a profit warning. Fed minutes indicated support for a 50-basis-point rate cut while Alphabet dropped 1.5% due to potential DOJ antitrust actions. ECB minutes suggested a cautious approach to future cuts. Japan saw a significant producer price index inflation increase, while Hurricane Milton heightened fuel demand in Florida. GSK (+3%) settled Zantac
20/10/2024: The MSCI had a modest gain of 0.57% in the week, driven by mixed corporate earnings, economic data, and reduced global demand from China. Nvidia neared Apple's market value, while Apple's shares rose due to increased iPhone sales in China. Fed Governor Waller advised caution on further rate cuts due to strong economic data. Oil prices fluctuated after Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu hinted at targeting Iranian military sites. France's inflation slowed to 1.1% in September, and UK inflation dropped to 1.7%, below the BOE's target. UK unemployment fell to 4% in August, with average earnings at a low, reinforcing expectations of a BOE rate cut in November. Japan posted a trade deficit with unexpected export declines. US indices rose with strong tech performance, retail sales, and lower-than-expected jobless claims. The ECB cut its key deposit rate to 3.25% to address slow growth. The US government reported a $64 billion budget surplus in September, a substantial improvement from the previous year's deficit, due to increased receipts and decreased outlays.
27/10/2024: The MSCI (-1.26%) fell despite 79% of US companies exceeding the third quaretr expectations. The People's Bank of China cut rates, and Euro Area consumer confidence rose to its highest since February 2022. The Bank of England is expected to cut rates in November and possibly December, following a drop in inflation to 1.7% in September. Sentiment towards Japanese stocks was cautious ahead of a general election. French PMIs showed contraction, and UK businesses experienced slow growth. Tokyo's inflation data dropped below the 2% target. The University of Michigan revised consumer sentiment and expectations upward while lowering inflation forecasts. Moody’s downgraded France's outlook to negative, citing budget deficit concerns. UK Finance Minister Reever prepares for the Autumn budget on October 30th amid challenges of increasing tax revenues for public services.
03/11/2024: MSCI (-1.24%): The MSCI experienced a volatile week despite easing geopolitical concerns after Israeli airstrikes on Iran targeted non-oil and non-nuclear facilities. Mixed quarterly earnings reports and economic data dampened sentiment. Japanese shares initially rose amid political uncertainty but fell back after the Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate. US megacaps saw disappointing earnings guidance from Microsoft and Meta. US labour reports indicated a cooling job market, while the PCE index showed core inflation rising. In the UK, Finance Minister Reever announced a significant tax increase and borrowing plans. Germany's Q3 GDP growth exceeded forecasts, and Eurozone inflation rose, reducing expectations for substantial ECB rate cuts. Market speculation about Trump reclaiming the White House drove the dollar and Treasury yields higher.
10/11/2024: MSCI (+3.58%) The MSCI experienced its strongest trading week of the quarter, driven by corporate earnings, economic data, central bank decisions, and the US presidential election results, where Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris. This news led to significant gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones. However, concerns arose over potential steep trade tariffs on China. The Fed and Bank of England both implemented rate cuts, with the BoE projecting higher inflation and growth due to new government policies. In Germany, the dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner by Chancellor Olaf Scholz hinted at possible political instability. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rallied due to a weakening yen. Meanwhile, France’s manufacturing PMI and industrial production saw declines.
17/11/2024: MSCI (-2.13%): The MSCI index dropped last week amid uncertainties over interest rates, a strong dollar, and anticipated Trump-era trade policies driving inflation. The Bank of Japan kept rates steady after previous hikes, while the UK's labour market showed wage growth but rising unemployment, complicating future policy decisions. In the US, CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, with core inflation at 3.3%, suggesting a December Federal Reserve rate cut. Tesla's stock gained with Elon Musk's new governmental role. Japan's GDP grew 0.9% year-on-year, lower than expected and raising hopes for no further BOJ rate hikes. Fed Chair Powell's hawkish stance hurt tech stocks like Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet. The dollar remained strong due to expected limited Fed rate cuts. In Europe, French inflation rose to 1.2%, and the UK's economy unexpectedly contracted in September, resulting in lower third-quarter growth and a productivity drop by 0.8% driven by higher hours worked.
24/11/2024: MSCI (+1.49%): The MSCI World Index closed the week firmer after a previous session slump, as concerns over the Federal Reserve's slower rate cuts weighed on sentiment. Wall Street watched Trump's cabinet picks, including Brendan Carr for FCC chair and potential Treasury Secretary candidates Kevin Warsh or Marc Rowan. Defence stocks surged due to the intensifying Russia-Ukraine war and Ukraine's use of UK-supplied cruise missiles into Russian territory. Japan's machinery orders for September declined, contributing to a larger-than-expected October trade deficit. Japan’s headline rate slowed to 2.3% in October, with core inflation growing similarly at 2.3%. In the US, Tesla surged 5.6% on regulatory easing for self-driving vehicles, while Nvidia gained 0.5% despite supply chain constraints pushing revenue growth to 2026. Alphabet fell 4.5% due to DOJ antitrust pressure, dragging down Amazon (-2.2%) and Meta (-0.4%). US jobless claims fell to 213,000, showing a resilient labour market while China-reliant industries benefitted from waning demand concerns. Energy giants profited from higher crude oil prices. UK inflation rose to 2.3% in October, surpassing the Bank of England’s target, reinforcing expectations for unchanged rates in December and modest cuts by end of 2024. Recent UK data showed higher government borrowing in October, with preliminary PMI figures indicating a contraction in Eurozone private sector activity, particularly in Germany and France. Germany’s third-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 0.1%. In the UK, consumer confidence improved slightly, though private sector contraction and lower-than-anticipated retail sales persisted.
01/12/2024: The MSCI (+1.17%) continued its upward trend during the final trading week of November. Japan's Leading Economic Indicators Index was revised down to 109.1 for September 2024. Optimism grew with President-elect Trump's nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, expecting market-friendly policies. The Dollar Index rebounded above 107 after Trump reiterated threats to raise tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. Trump announced plans for a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports and 25% on Mexican and Canadian goods, causing global trade tension concerns. US consumer confidence rose to 111.70 in November, beating expectations. French consumer confidence fell to 90.00 from 93.00 in October. US initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 213.00K for the week ending November 22, 2024. Tokyo CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in November, up from 1.8% in October. Japan's industrial production fell by 2.6% year-on-year in October. French GDP increased by 0.4% in 3Q24, matching expectations. The Eurozone CPI dropped 0.3% month-on-month in November. Japan's Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI fell to 49.00 in November, in line with expectations.
08/12/2024: The MSCI (+1.18%) continued its upward trend for the third consecutive week, driven by corporate earnings, economic data, and political events. Highlights included Tesla's 3.4% rise on self-driving software updates, Super Micro Computer's 28.7% surge after financial report validation, and Amazon's 1.4% gain from strong Cyber Monday sales. US Steel fell 8% after Trump opposed its $15 billion takeover by Nippon Steel. Bitcoin surpassed $100,000, boosted by Trump's potential return and favourable crypto regulations. In France, political instability led to Macron needing to appoint a new prime minister. The Eurozone saw a contraction in manufacturing and steady unemployment at 6.3%. The UK experienced unexpected house price growth in November. In Japan, chip firms benefitted from Chinese disruptions, while 10-year bond yields rose above 1.08% on potential rate hikes. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs on a strong November jobs report, while Chairman Powell emphasized caution despite solid economic performance and ongoing inflation concerns.
15/12/2024: MSCI (-0.98%) ended its three-week upward trend as investors awaited US inflation data, a Chinese antitrust investigation, and an ECB rate decision. Nvidia fell after a Chinese probe into antitrust violations, while China’s pledge for "moderately loose" monetary policies and "proactive" fiscal measures boosted economic recovery hopes. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.2% on better-than-expected, third-quarter GDP growth, but doubts remain about further BOJ rate hikes. Nvidia declined 2.7% amid the probe, while Alphabet surged 5.6% due to breakthroughs in quantum computing. The Nasdaq 100 reached a new record, bolstered by aligned inflation data and expected Fed rate cuts. ChatGPT faced a global outage, and French President Macron plans to appoint a new prime minister within 48 hours.
22/12/2024: The MSCI (-2.46%) had its worst week of the quarter after the Fed adopted a more hawkish stance, reigniting fears of stagflation. The CBOE Volatility Index surged by 74% on the same day, marking its second-largest daily increase ever. US Treasury yields spiked last week after the Fed revealed it plans to cut interest rates less than expected next year, with the market demanding higher yields due to potentially persistent inflation. The yield spread between US Treasuries and German Bunds is now at its widest since 2019, reflecting the differing monetary policies in the US and Europe. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, in line with expectations, but surprised markets by signalling only two rate cuts in 2025, compared to the four cuts previously indicated in the September dot plot. The S&P 500 ended the week down by 1.97%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 dropped by 2.74%, impacted by the US’s hawkish shift and concerns over US tariffs. The FTSE 100 fell by 2.54%, marking its worst weekly performance in 21 months, and as UK inflation reached an eight-month high. Oil prices saw a sharp decline last week amid worries about weak Chinese demand in 2025. Gold prices also dropped to $2645.10/troy oz, following weak export demand in the US in November. In the UK, the Bank of England held rates at 4.75%. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR) expects the BoE to continue cutting rates at a quarterly pace of 25-basis points through to the second quarter of 2026, longer than the market anticipates. In Japan, the BoJ maintained its policy rate at 0.25%. Both headline and core inflation data in the US came in below expectations last week. The November PCE price index rose to 2.4% year-over-year, below the anticipated 2.5%, while core PCE rose to 2.8% year-over-year, also below the expected 2.9%.
29/12/2024: The last week of 2024 saw the MSCI (+0.86%) marginally increasing, following inflation prints that met expectations. The S&P 500 (+1.1%), Stoxx 600 (+0.4%) and FTSE 100 (+0.3%) recorded gains as US PCE and HICP flash inflation in the Euro area met expectations. In the US, Core PCE for October rose by 2.8% year-on-year whilst headline rose 2.31%. In the Euro Area flash November inflation rose 2.74% year-on-year whilst headline increase 2.28%. in Japan, the Tokyo new core CPI (excludes fresh food and energy) rose 0.1 pp from October to 1.9% year-over-year in November. At the same time, the second estimate of the third quarter US GDP grew by 2.8% annualised, whilst Canadian real GDP growth rate was 1% annualised vis-à-vis 2.2% growth recorded in the previous quarter.
